完整交易审计 · 逐笔可复现
微软 MSFT
趋势策略买卖流水
2022-03-15—2026-08-19｜35次买入 · 34次卖出 · 1笔当前持仓｜后复权开盘成交口径
结论先行
问题不是成本，而是持仓时段选错
微软上涨主要发生在策略空仓时：持仓日市场累计−1.83%，空仓日市场累计+80.71%。
计成本收益-8.66%
买入持有+77.26%
完整交易34笔
胜率38.2%
最大回撤-37.33%
市场暴露52.7%
成本拆解：零成本收益为-1.83%，加入69次买卖事件后降至-8.66%。成本放大了亏损，但没有改变“零成本也亏损”的事实。
完整曲线
股价、买卖点与触发斜率
绿色三角为买入，红色三角为卖出，绿色背景为实际持仓区间。下图蓝线为EMA5斜率，虚线为±0.20%触发阈值。
逐笔配对
35笔交易明细
下载全部明细ZIP（逐笔CSV＋事件CSV＋完整JSON）永久取件码：K7KJ1
← 左右滑动查看全部字段 →
| # | 状态 | 买入日期/价格 | 买入斜率穿越 | 卖出日期/价格 | 卖出斜率穿越 | 持有 | 毛收益 | 净收益 | 最大浮盈 | 最大浮亏 | 累计净值 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 亏损 | 2022-03-18$285.12 | +0.045% → +0.306% | 2022-04-11$281.66 | -0.034% → -0.398% | 16日24自然日 | -1.21% | -1.42% | +6.78% | -3.42% | 0.9858 |
| 2 | 亏损 | 2022-05-04$272.78 | +0.049% → +0.257% | 2022-05-11$256.46 | -0.040% → -0.237% | 5日7自然日 | -5.98% | -6.18% | +2.62% | -7.80% | 0.9249 |
| 3 | 亏损 | 2022-05-31$263.68 | -0.011% → +0.324% | 2022-06-14$235.94 | -0.105% → -0.703% | 10日14自然日 | -10.52% | -10.71% | +0.75% | -11.11% | 0.8259 |
| 4 | 亏损 | 2022-06-30$248.70 | +0.066% → +0.223% | 2022-07-15$247.42 | +0.020% → -0.284% | 10日15自然日 | -0.52% | -0.73% | +4.42% | -1.68% | 0.8199 |
| 5 | 亏损 | 2022-07-29$268.68 | +0.060% → +0.447% | 2022-08-23$268.03 | +0.220% → -0.235% | 17日25自然日 | -0.24% | -0.45% | +5.68% | -1.04% | 0.8162 |
| 6 | 亏损 | 2022-10-06$240.39 | -0.081% → +0.221% | 2022-10-12$218.54 | +0.121% → -0.219% | 4日6自然日 | -9.09% | -9.28% | -0.46% | -9.08% | 0.7404 |
| 7 | 亏损 | 2022-10-24$236.35 | +0.070% → +0.219% | 2022-11-01$227.47 | -0.179% → -0.204% | 6日8自然日 | -3.76% | -3.96% | +2.83% | -6.98% | 0.7111 |
| 8 | 盈利 | 2022-11-14$234.63 | -0.149% → +0.246% | 2022-12-08$238.06 | -0.025% → -0.242% | 17日24自然日 | +1.46% | +1.25% | +5.73% | -0.41% | 0.7200 |
| 9 | 亏损 | 2022-12-15$246.70 | +0.191% → +0.316% | 2022-12-20$232.77 | -0.083% → -0.372% | 3日5自然日 | -5.64% | -5.84% | -1.86% | -5.23% | 0.6779 |
| 10 | 盈利 | 2023-01-17$231.38 | -0.038% → +0.331% | 2023-02-22$247.68 | +0.120% → -0.232% | 25日36自然日 | +7.04% | +6.82% | +14.37% | -2.54% | 0.7241 |
| 11 | 盈利 | 2023-03-15$253.42 | -0.124% → +0.277% | 2023-04-13$276.43 | -0.076% → -0.210% | 20日29自然日 | +9.08% | +8.85% | +12.16% | +2.10% | 0.7883 |
| 12 | 盈利 | 2023-05-01$299.22 | +0.177% → +0.519% | 2023-06-27$324.19 | -0.122% → -0.270% | 39日57自然日 | +8.34% | +8.12% | +13.65% | -0.84% | 0.8523 |
| 13 | 亏损 | 2023-07-07$331.48 | +0.139% → +0.203% | 2023-07-12$328.82 | -0.188% → -0.314% | 3日5自然日 | -0.80% | -1.01% | -0.62% | -2.21% | 0.8436 |
| 14 | 亏损 | 2023-07-18$337.84 | +0.096% → +0.337% | 2023-07-28$325.96 | +0.036% → -0.267% | 8日10自然日 | -3.52% | -3.72% | +3.95% | -4.37% | 0.8123 |
| 15 | 亏损 | 2023-08-29$315.11 | +0.162% → +0.231% | 2023-09-21$312.54 | -0.098% → -0.330% | 16日23自然日 | -0.81% | -1.02% | +5.23% | -0.73% | 0.8040 |
| 16 | 盈利 | 2023-10-10$323.99 | +0.022% → +0.329% | 2023-12-05$359.47 | -0.106% → -0.288% | 39日56自然日 | +10.95% | +10.72% | +15.87% | -1.30% | 0.8902 |
| 17 | 盈利 | 2023-12-29$368.83 | +0.158% → +0.209% | 2024-02-21$393.27 | -0.187% → -0.283% | 35日54自然日 | +6.63% | +6.40% | +11.85% | -2.19% | 0.9471 |
| 18 | 亏损 | 2024-03-14$412.99 | +0.172% → +0.208% | 2024-04-16$407.42 | -0.049% → -0.241% | 22日33自然日 | -1.35% | -1.56% | +2.17% | -1.57% | 0.9324 |
| 19 | 盈利 | 2024-05-08$401.13 | +0.030% → +0.202% | 2024-06-03$409.10 | -0.028% → -0.271% | 17日26自然日 | +1.99% | +1.77% | +5.67% | +0.58% | 0.9489 |
| 20 | 盈利 | 2024-06-14$431.50 | +0.187% → +0.365% | 2024-07-17$435.74 | -0.155% → -0.268% | 21日33自然日 | +0.98% | +0.77% | +6.68% | +0.98% | 0.9563 |
| 21 | 亏损 | 2024-08-16$414.84 | +0.072% → +0.303% | 2024-09-05$402.04 | -0.055% → -0.234% | 13日20自然日 | -3.09% | -3.29% | +1.00% | -2.90% | 0.9248 |
| 22 | 亏损 | 2024-09-16$424.70 | +0.081% → +0.346% | 2024-10-03$411.91 | -0.043% → -0.294% | 13日17自然日 | -3.01% | -3.21% | +1.88% | -3.27% | 0.8951 |
| 23 | 亏损 | 2024-10-23$424.96 | +0.081% → +0.254% | 2024-11-05$402.78 | -0.115% → -0.351% | 9日13自然日 | -5.22% | -5.42% | +0.39% | -5.69% | 0.8466 |
| 24 | 盈利 | 2024-11-27$420.13 | +0.043% → +0.306% | 2024-12-24$429.55 | -0.152% → -0.315% | 18日27自然日 | +2.24% | +2.03% | +6.90% | -0.50% | 0.8637 |
| 25 | 亏损 | 2025-01-22$432.43 | +0.198% → +0.239% | 2025-02-04$407.85 | -0.093% → -0.425% | 9日13自然日 | -5.68% | -5.88% | +2.20% | -6.09% | 0.8129 |
| 26 | 亏损 | 2025-03-24$391.55 | +0.058% → +0.204% | 2025-04-07$347.46 | -0.180% → -0.490% | 10日14自然日 | -11.26% | -11.45% | -0.06% | -9.49% | 0.7199 |
| 27 | 盈利 | 2025-04-25$383.23 | -0.049% → +0.314% | 2025-05-29$457.89 | -0.101% → -0.249% | 23日34自然日 | +19.48% | +19.23% | +19.26% | +1.07% | 0.8583 |
| 28 | 盈利 | 2025-06-12$471.26 | +0.185% → +0.217% | 2025-08-20$505.83 | -0.109% → -0.309% | 47日69自然日 | +7.34% | +7.11% | +12.76% | -0.01% | 0.9194 |
| 29 | 亏损 | 2025-09-16$513.63 | +0.130% → +0.319% | 2025-11-07$493.82 | -0.143% → -0.371% | 38日52自然日 | -3.86% | -4.06% | +4.87% | -3.88% | 0.8821 |
| 30 | 亏损 | 2026-01-29$438.04 | +0.095% → +0.353% | 2026-02-02$428.33 | -0.169% → -0.533% | 2日4自然日 | -2.22% | -2.42% | -1.48% | -3.78% | 0.8607 |
| 31 | 亏损 | 2026-02-27$390.04 | +0.106% → +0.593% | 2026-03-20$385.95 | -0.139% → -0.291% | 15日21自然日 | -1.05% | -1.25% | +5.07% | -2.31% | 0.8499 |
| 32 | 盈利 | 2026-04-14$387.08 | +0.158% → +0.422% | 2026-05-06$407.12 | -0.095% → -0.337% | 16日22自然日 | +5.18% | +4.96% | +11.60% | +1.34% | 0.8921 |
| 33 | 亏损 | 2026-05-26$416.43 | +0.163% → +0.221% | 2026-06-10$398.55 | -0.083% → -0.445% | 11日15自然日 | -4.29% | -4.50% | +10.59% | -4.58% | 0.8520 |
| 34 | 盈利 | 2026-07-06$387.04 | -0.014% → +0.400% | 2026-07-27$390.08 | +0.112% → -0.326% | 15日21自然日 | +0.79% | +0.58% | +3.94% | -1.41% | 0.8569 |
| 35 | 持仓中 | 2026-07-31$450.00 | -0.338% → +0.696% | 持仓中 标记至2026-08-19$480.07 |
— | 13日19自然日 | +6.68% | +6.60% | +12.46% | +3.27% | 0.9134 |
净收益计入买入8 bps与卖出13 bps；当前持仓只计买入成本，并按2026-08-19后复权开盘价标记。最大浮盈/浮亏按持仓期后复权收盘价相对买入价计算。
原始事件
69条买入与卖出事件
← 左右滑动查看全部字段 →
| 事件# | 交易# | 日期 | 动作 | 后复权开盘价 | 前一斜率 | 触发斜率 | 数据截至 | 成本 | 执行后仓位 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 2022-03-18 | 买入 | $285.12 | +0.045% | +0.306% | 2022-03-17 | 8 bps | 全仓 |
| 2 | 1 | 2022-04-11 | 卖出 | $281.66 | -0.034% | -0.398% | 2022-04-08 | 13 bps | 空仓 |
| 3 | 2 | 2022-05-04 | 买入 | $272.78 | +0.049% | +0.257% | 2022-05-03 | 8 bps | 全仓 |
| 4 | 2 | 2022-05-11 | 卖出 | $256.46 | -0.040% | -0.237% | 2022-05-10 | 13 bps | 空仓 |
| 5 | 3 | 2022-05-31 | 买入 | $263.68 | -0.011% | +0.324% | 2022-05-27 | 8 bps | 全仓 |
| 6 | 3 | 2022-06-14 | 卖出 | $235.94 | -0.105% | -0.703% | 2022-06-13 | 13 bps | 空仓 |
| 7 | 4 | 2022-06-30 | 买入 | $248.70 | +0.066% | +0.223% | 2022-06-29 | 8 bps | 全仓 |
| 8 | 4 | 2022-07-15 | 卖出 | $247.42 | +0.020% | -0.284% | 2022-07-14 | 13 bps | 空仓 |
| 9 | 5 | 2022-07-29 | 买入 | $268.68 | +0.060% | +0.447% | 2022-07-28 | 8 bps | 全仓 |
| 10 | 5 | 2022-08-23 | 卖出 | $268.03 | +0.220% | -0.235% | 2022-08-22 | 13 bps | 空仓 |
| 11 | 6 | 2022-10-06 | 买入 | $240.39 | -0.081% | +0.221% | 2022-10-05 | 8 bps | 全仓 |
| 12 | 6 | 2022-10-12 | 卖出 | $218.54 | +0.121% | -0.219% | 2022-10-11 | 13 bps | 空仓 |
| 13 | 7 | 2022-10-24 | 买入 | $236.35 | +0.070% | +0.219% | 2022-10-21 | 8 bps | 全仓 |
| 14 | 7 | 2022-11-01 | 卖出 | $227.47 | -0.179% | -0.204% | 2022-10-31 | 13 bps | 空仓 |
| 15 | 8 | 2022-11-14 | 买入 | $234.63 | -0.149% | +0.246% | 2022-11-11 | 8 bps | 全仓 |
| 16 | 8 | 2022-12-08 | 卖出 | $238.06 | -0.025% | -0.242% | 2022-12-07 | 13 bps | 空仓 |
| 17 | 9 | 2022-12-15 | 买入 | $246.70 | +0.191% | +0.316% | 2022-12-14 | 8 bps | 全仓 |
| 18 | 9 | 2022-12-20 | 卖出 | $232.77 | -0.083% | -0.372% | 2022-12-19 | 13 bps | 空仓 |
| 19 | 10 | 2023-01-17 | 买入 | $231.38 | -0.038% | +0.331% | 2023-01-13 | 8 bps | 全仓 |
| 20 | 10 | 2023-02-22 | 卖出 | $247.68 | +0.120% | -0.232% | 2023-02-21 | 13 bps | 空仓 |
| 21 | 11 | 2023-03-15 | 买入 | $253.42 | -0.124% | +0.277% | 2023-03-14 | 8 bps | 全仓 |
| 22 | 11 | 2023-04-13 | 卖出 | $276.43 | -0.076% | -0.210% | 2023-04-12 | 13 bps | 空仓 |
| 23 | 12 | 2023-05-01 | 买入 | $299.22 | +0.177% | +0.519% | 2023-04-28 | 8 bps | 全仓 |
| 24 | 12 | 2023-06-27 | 卖出 | $324.19 | -0.122% | -0.270% | 2023-06-26 | 13 bps | 空仓 |
| 25 | 13 | 2023-07-07 | 买入 | $331.48 | +0.139% | +0.203% | 2023-07-06 | 8 bps | 全仓 |
| 26 | 13 | 2023-07-12 | 卖出 | $328.82 | -0.188% | -0.314% | 2023-07-11 | 13 bps | 空仓 |
| 27 | 14 | 2023-07-18 | 买入 | $337.84 | +0.096% | +0.337% | 2023-07-17 | 8 bps | 全仓 |
| 28 | 14 | 2023-07-28 | 卖出 | $325.96 | +0.036% | -0.267% | 2023-07-27 | 13 bps | 空仓 |
| 29 | 15 | 2023-08-29 | 买入 | $315.11 | +0.162% | +0.231% | 2023-08-28 | 8 bps | 全仓 |
| 30 | 15 | 2023-09-21 | 卖出 | $312.54 | -0.098% | -0.330% | 2023-09-20 | 13 bps | 空仓 |
| 31 | 16 | 2023-10-10 | 买入 | $323.99 | +0.022% | +0.329% | 2023-10-09 | 8 bps | 全仓 |
| 32 | 16 | 2023-12-05 | 卖出 | $359.47 | -0.106% | -0.288% | 2023-12-04 | 13 bps | 空仓 |
| 33 | 17 | 2023-12-29 | 买入 | $368.83 | +0.158% | +0.209% | 2023-12-28 | 8 bps | 全仓 |
| 34 | 17 | 2024-02-21 | 卖出 | $393.27 | -0.187% | -0.283% | 2024-02-20 | 13 bps | 空仓 |
| 35 | 18 | 2024-03-14 | 买入 | $412.99 | +0.172% | +0.208% | 2024-03-13 | 8 bps | 全仓 |
| 36 | 18 | 2024-04-16 | 卖出 | $407.42 | -0.049% | -0.241% | 2024-04-15 | 13 bps | 空仓 |
| 37 | 19 | 2024-05-08 | 买入 | $401.13 | +0.030% | +0.202% | 2024-05-07 | 8 bps | 全仓 |
| 38 | 19 | 2024-06-03 | 卖出 | $409.10 | -0.028% | -0.271% | 2024-05-31 | 13 bps | 空仓 |
| 39 | 20 | 2024-06-14 | 买入 | $431.50 | +0.187% | +0.365% | 2024-06-13 | 8 bps | 全仓 |
| 40 | 20 | 2024-07-17 | 卖出 | $435.74 | -0.155% | -0.268% | 2024-07-16 | 13 bps | 空仓 |
| 41 | 21 | 2024-08-16 | 买入 | $414.84 | +0.072% | +0.303% | 2024-08-15 | 8 bps | 全仓 |
| 42 | 21 | 2024-09-05 | 卖出 | $402.04 | -0.055% | -0.234% | 2024-09-04 | 13 bps | 空仓 |
| 43 | 22 | 2024-09-16 | 买入 | $424.70 | +0.081% | +0.346% | 2024-09-13 | 8 bps | 全仓 |
| 44 | 22 | 2024-10-03 | 卖出 | $411.91 | -0.043% | -0.294% | 2024-10-02 | 13 bps | 空仓 |
| 45 | 23 | 2024-10-23 | 买入 | $424.96 | +0.081% | +0.254% | 2024-10-22 | 8 bps | 全仓 |
| 46 | 23 | 2024-11-05 | 卖出 | $402.78 | -0.115% | -0.351% | 2024-11-04 | 13 bps | 空仓 |
| 47 | 24 | 2024-11-27 | 买入 | $420.13 | +0.043% | +0.306% | 2024-11-26 | 8 bps | 全仓 |
| 48 | 24 | 2024-12-24 | 卖出 | $429.55 | -0.152% | -0.315% | 2024-12-23 | 13 bps | 空仓 |
| 49 | 25 | 2025-01-22 | 买入 | $432.43 | +0.198% | +0.239% | 2025-01-21 | 8 bps | 全仓 |
| 50 | 25 | 2025-02-04 | 卖出 | $407.85 | -0.093% | -0.425% | 2025-02-03 | 13 bps | 空仓 |
| 51 | 26 | 2025-03-24 | 买入 | $391.55 | +0.058% | +0.204% | 2025-03-21 | 8 bps | 全仓 |
| 52 | 26 | 2025-04-07 | 卖出 | $347.46 | -0.180% | -0.490% | 2025-04-04 | 13 bps | 空仓 |
| 53 | 27 | 2025-04-25 | 买入 | $383.23 | -0.049% | +0.314% | 2025-04-24 | 8 bps | 全仓 |
| 54 | 27 | 2025-05-29 | 卖出 | $457.89 | -0.101% | -0.249% | 2025-05-28 | 13 bps | 空仓 |
| 55 | 28 | 2025-06-12 | 买入 | $471.26 | +0.185% | +0.217% | 2025-06-11 | 8 bps | 全仓 |
| 56 | 28 | 2025-08-20 | 卖出 | $505.83 | -0.109% | -0.309% | 2025-08-19 | 13 bps | 空仓 |
| 57 | 29 | 2025-09-16 | 买入 | $513.63 | +0.130% | +0.319% | 2025-09-15 | 8 bps | 全仓 |
| 58 | 29 | 2025-11-07 | 卖出 | $493.82 | -0.143% | -0.371% | 2025-11-06 | 13 bps | 空仓 |
| 59 | 30 | 2026-01-29 | 买入 | $438.04 | +0.095% | +0.353% | 2026-01-28 | 8 bps | 全仓 |
| 60 | 30 | 2026-02-02 | 卖出 | $428.33 | -0.169% | -0.533% | 2026-01-30 | 13 bps | 空仓 |
| 61 | 31 | 2026-02-27 | 买入 | $390.04 | +0.106% | +0.593% | 2026-02-26 | 8 bps | 全仓 |
| 62 | 31 | 2026-03-20 | 卖出 | $385.95 | -0.139% | -0.291% | 2026-03-19 | 13 bps | 空仓 |
| 63 | 32 | 2026-04-14 | 买入 | $387.08 | +0.158% | +0.422% | 2026-04-13 | 8 bps | 全仓 |
| 64 | 32 | 2026-05-06 | 卖出 | $407.12 | -0.095% | -0.337% | 2026-05-05 | 13 bps | 空仓 |
| 65 | 33 | 2026-05-26 | 买入 | $416.43 | +0.163% | +0.221% | 2026-05-22 | 8 bps | 全仓 |
| 66 | 33 | 2026-06-10 | 卖出 | $398.55 | -0.083% | -0.445% | 2026-06-09 | 13 bps | 空仓 |
| 67 | 34 | 2026-07-06 | 买入 | $387.04 | -0.014% | +0.400% | 2026-07-02 | 8 bps | 全仓 |
| 68 | 34 | 2026-07-27 | 卖出 | $390.08 | +0.112% | -0.326% | 2026-07-24 | 13 bps | 空仓 |
| 69 | 35 | 2026-07-31 | 买入 | $450.00 | -0.338% | +0.696% | 2026-07-30 | 8 bps | 全仓 |
年度拆分
每年发生了什么
| 年份 | 趋势净收益 | 零成本趋势 | 买入持有 | 当年开仓并完成 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | -32.21% | -30.91% | -12.73% | 9笔 |
| 2023 | +30.45% | +32.48% | +55.16% | 8笔 |
| 2024 | -2.33% | -0.76% | +14.67% | 7笔 |
| 2025 | +2.12% | +3.20% | +14.67% | 5笔 |
| 2026 | +3.55% | +4.72% | -0.45% | 5笔 |
最好与最差交易
最好：#27 · 2025-04-25—2025-05-29 · +19.23% · 持有23个交易日。
最差：#26 · 2025-03-24—2025-04-07 · -11.45% · 持有10个交易日。
当前持仓：#35 · 2026-07-31以$450.00买入；截至2026-08-19净收益+6.60%，斜率+0.724%/日。
字段解释
怎样读这份流水
- 买入斜率穿越：前一列斜率不高于+0.20%，当前斜率上穿阈值，按当天开盘执行。
- 卖出斜率穿越：持仓中斜率下穿−0.20%，按当天开盘清仓。
- 数据截至：该次开盘操作所依赖的最后一个历史交易日，始终早于操作日，防止未来数据泄漏。
- 毛收益：只比较后复权开盘成交价；净收益进一步扣除交易成本。
- 最大浮盈/浮亏：持仓中曾经达到的最好与最差未实现收益，不等于最终成交收益。
复现与审计
来源与哈希
原始行情：Yahoo Finance日线，报告使用后复权开盘价与收盘价。所有信号仅使用操作日前已经形成的数据。
结果JSON SHA-256：4738d04d3de96b1ed699b65710652c5a3cb632aa84fc5e90dfc9e31ecd851850
逐笔CSV SHA-256：bdeed9aa083fca59df6c095279073bafcdc893b108dd6a6bb32a77bb4e9cc1aa 事件CSV SHA-256：1bb39826fe4eff0701465aaf9ddfbbaf4caf043df3d5ed82965c8f290c928cb6
复现脚本：build_msft_trade_report.py；买卖曲线脚本：build_msft_buy_sell_curve.py。